Investing Under The Trifecta Of War, Recession, And Inflation

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has now continued for month with no end in sight. The destruction in Ukraine is incredible to see and understand, but what is clear is now a distaste for investing in Russia that likely will continue, regardless of the outcome, for the next decade at minimum. Putin has single-handedly erased the progress that Russia has made over the last three decades of its integr... Continue reading

March 22, 2022

Riding the Russia Risk

Russia's move into the Ukraine today is raising the specter of war--a geopolitical risk that depending on its scale, and amongst many other dangers, roil financial markets and impact investment returns. I won't try to over-analyze the actions and potential impact directly in the region, as doing so is fraught with so many outcomes, with such a small probability of being accurate in its determin... Continue reading

February 22, 2022

Market's Valuation is Not Attractive, Buyer Beware

The S&P 500 has a trailing price-to-earnings (PE) ratio that has fallen over the last six months, but continues to be higher than I am comfortable with, and much higher than the market has seen historically.  As of Friday, the PE ratio was 25.08, above the average of 15.96. It is markedly below the high we reached in May 2009 when it peaked at 123.73, which is hard to fathom that such exuberanc... Continue reading

January 21, 2022


Negative Signs on Peloton

Peloton (PTON) stock took a major tumble today on a report by CNBC News that they had seen internal documents purporting to indicate that Peloton had temporarily halted production in bike and treadmill production, sending the stock down nearly 25% to $24.14. I've been negative on Peloton since the start of the year, and its based on three major negative signs of managements stock sales, high in... Continue reading

January 20, 2022


Inflation is a Distraction, Focus on Earnings

Everyone's talking about the rise in inflation and where it's going. Government actions to boost the economy during COVID, as well as constrained and disjointed supply patterns have messed up our normally highly tuned economy. This, coupled with an increase in oil and housing prices have led to an inflation CPI jump of 7%, the highest since 1982. [pexels-cdc-3992933.jpg]This is being factored ... Continue reading

January 19, 2022


Multiple Portfolio Headwinds in 2022

Our outlook for 2022 is one of serious caution. We face headwinds from multiple related fronts of sky high stock valuations, COVID, inflation, and geopolitical risks. Combined, its a volatile mix, with any single one being a good reason to tread carefully. 2021 IPO Darlings and High Valuations Will Be Hit Issuers and bankers took advantage of high investor interest, or otherwise stay-at-home ... Continue reading

January 6, 2022